How to buy right
Never buy a significant autograph without third-party authentication from PSA, JSA, or Beckett. This applies even when the seller's story is compelling and the signature looks right. Forgeries are specifically designed to fool people who rely on visual assessment and compelling narratives. For game-used items, request all documentation: team LOA, photo match research if available, any prior provenance
Research comparable recent sales before bidding on anything significant. Heritage and Goldin publish results. eBay sold listings provide the mid-market reference. The price you should pay is what comparable authenticated items have actually sold for recently.
CollectorGrade take
The story behind a piece of memorabilia is the most emotionally powerful and the least reliable evidence of its authenticity. Authentication companies exist precisely because compelling stories have historically been more available than genuine items.